Estimating Earth Impact Probabilities for Earth Crossing Asteroids

Details Estimating Earth Impact Probabilities for Earth Crossing Asteroids Estimating Earth Impact Probabilities for Earth Crossing Asteroids

Sep 1998

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1998dda....30.0704c&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, DDA meeting #30, #07.04; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 30, p.1144

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

If an asteroid were discovered to be on a trajectory that brings it extremely close to the Earth, how soon would we be able to say whether or not an impact will occur? The answer depends on how long before impact the object is discovered, and whether or not it has been observed on multiple apparitions. If the dangerous close approach occurs during the asteroid's discovery apparition, we could not reliably predict a hit or a miss much more than a few months ahead of the event, at best. In the more hopeful scenario in which the asteroid's extreme close approach occurs during a future apparition, a definitive impact prediction would have to wait until the asteroid is observed during a second apparition, or pre-discovery observations from an earlier apparition are found. As soon as multi-apparition observations are available, the asteroid's orbit becomes much better determined, and a definitive impact prediction can be made, even if the impact is many decades in the future. To demonstrate these conclusions, a number of simulated test cases are used, including the recently discovered Apollo asteroid 1997 BR, its orbit altered slightly so that it impacts Earth in 2051. With only a single apparition of optical astrometic data, the impact probability for this simulated rogue asteroid is less than 1%. If the asteroid was observed with radar in July 1997, the probability increases to 15%. But, if only a few optical observations are made in 2000, the impact probability in 2051 increases to 99%.

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