Some notes concerning the prediction of the amplitude of the solar activity cycles

Details Some notes concerning the prediction of the amplitude of the solar activity cycles Some notes concerning the prediction of the amplitude of the solar activity cycles

Oct 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009ap%26ss.323..221t&link_type=abstract

Astrophysics and Space Science, Volume 323, Issue 3, pp.221-224

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

2

Solar Cycle, Sunspot, Activity

Scientific paper

The parameter G, which is determined from the general number of sunspots groups N g according to the daily observations G=∑(1/ N g )2, is offered. This parameter is calculated for the days when there is at least one sunspots group. It characterizes the minimum epoch solar activity. Parameter G mounts to the maximum during the epoch close to the minimal activity of sunspots. According to the data of the sequence of sunspots group in Greenwich-USAF/NOAA observatory format, observation data of Kislovodsk solar station and also daily Wolf number, the changes of parameter G during 100 years were reconstructed. It is demonstrated in the paper that parameter G’s amplitude in minimal solar activity n is linked with the sunspot cycle’s amplitude W n+1 or one and half cycles. The 24th activity cycle prediction is calculated, which makes W 24=135(±12).

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