The extrapolation of accuracy of ephemerides of natural satellites

Details The extrapolation of accuracy of ephemerides of natural satellites The extrapolation of accuracy of ephemerides of natural satellites

Jul 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007sf2a.conf...87d&link_type=abstract

SF2A-2007: Proceedings of the Annual meeting of the French Society of Astronomy and Astrophysics held in Grenoble, France, July

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

Scientific paper

The accuracy of planetary satellites ephemerides is determined not only by the accuracy of dynamical model (internal accuracy) but also by the accuracy of the observations (external accuracy) used to fit the initial parameters of model. This external accuracy extrapolated in the future is unknown most of the time and tends to deteriorate the global accuracy of ephemerides. Even if we can estimate the quality of the ephemerides by comparaison with observations, we don't know how to determinate the evolution of the accuracy outside the period of observations. We will present some different statistical methods, resampling of observations, which allow a better estimation of the extrapolated accuracy in the future.

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