The possibility of predicting solar flares on the basis of radio-emission characteristics

Computer Science – Performance

Scientific paper

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Performance Prediction, Solar Activity Effects, Solar Atmosphere, Solar Flares, Solar Radio Emission, Solar Terrestrial Interactions, Atmospheric Heating, Optical Thickness, Plasma Currents, Plasma Diagnostics, Plasma Layers, Solar Magnetic Field, Solar Protons, Stellar Models, Thermal Stability

Scientific paper

In the framework of Syrovatskii's (1977) model, a criterion is obtained that makes it possible to use radio-emission characteristics to determine the beginning of thermal current-sheet instability as the onset of the explosive phase of solar flares. The formation of a current sheet in the solar atmosphere can be manifested in radio emission; several hours before the flare, this formation can produce an increase of the brightness temperature of a small region near the zero line at millimeter wavelengths and a decrease of brightness temperature at centimeter wavelengths. Multichannel radiometers can be used for the identification and diagnostics of the current sheet, i.e., to determine its thickness, temperature, density, and the parameters characterizing the closeness of the sheet to the instabilities producing the flare. This makes it possible to use radio-emission characteristics associated with thermal current-sheet instability to predict the onset of the explosive phase of solar flares.

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