The role of interactions of solar-initiated interplanetary disturbances within 1 AU in real time predictions of shocks

Computer Science

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Interplanetary Shocks

Scientific paper

During times of high solar activity, such as 7 - 15 July 2000, the resulting interplanetary disturbances (IPD) interact as they propagate out to 1 AU. This complicates the association (and forecasting) of interplanetary (IP) events with individual solar events. We first briefly review the interactions expected on the basis of time dependent numerical MHD. We then demonstrate such shock interactions by examining the predictions that were made in real time during the July 2000 events, using three numerical models: STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2. The model predictions are compared with the IP shock arrivals as observed at L1 by ACE. Only the HAFv.2 model has the "built in" capability of processing compound events. These comparisons demonstrate the importance and necessity of considering shock interactions in predicting the arrival of IP shocks during times of enhanced solar activity.

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