In Brief: Next solar cycle expected to be intense

Details In Brief: Next solar cycle expected to be intense In Brief: Next solar cycle expected to be intense

May 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007eostr..88t.210z&link_type=abstract

Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Volume 88, Issue 19, p. 210-210

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Solar Activity Cycle (2162), Space Weather: Forecasting (2722)

Scientific paper

Solar Cycle 24 will be a period of intense solar storms that will peak in late 2011 to mid-2012, according to the NOAA-led Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel's consensus forecast that was released on 25 April. The forecast will be used for planning by government and industry groups; power and communication networks, satellites, and airplanes can be affected by sunspot activity. The panel evaluated more than 40 predictions, which ranged from 42 to 185 sunspots total for the cycle. The consensus prediction was based on six techniques, three based on statistics and three based on physics and theory of the Sun's dynamo conveyor belt. The validity of the prediction will soon get its first test; if it does not accurately predict the Solar Cycle 23 minimum, it will also likely fail to predict the timing, duration, and intensity of the next peak, said panel chair Douglas Biesecker, a solar physicist with the NOAA Space Environment Center.

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