Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Aug 1985
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1985mnras.215..369s&link_type=abstract
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (ISSN 0035-8711), vol. 215, Aug. 1, 1985, p. 369-381.
Mathematics
Probability
16
Asteroids, Celestial Mechanics, Collisions, Mars Craters, Mars Surface, Apollo Asteroids, Collision Rates, Cratering, Orbital Elements, Probability Distribution Functions, Mars, Collisions, Asteroids, Impacts, Solar System, Mars Crossers, Orbits, Comparisons, Frequency, Calculations, Resonance, Analysis
Scientific paper
Using a sample of 284 asteroids whose orbital elements indicate them to cross at least part of the present orbit of Mars, a mean collision probability with that planet of 3.5×10-10yr-1 is calculated. If there are ≡104 Mars-crossers larger than ≡1 km, then one impact by such a body every 300,000 yr is to be expected. This is close to the impact rates previously calculated for the Earth and Venus, but much higher than that for Mercury (Steel & Baggaley). Due to the possibility of bias in the sample, and the effect of resonances which cause many asteroids to avoid Mars-encounters, these figures should be viewed with caution.
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