Modeling of Wait Times Between Storm-Level Kp Occurrences

Details Modeling of Wait Times Between Storm-Level Kp Occurrences Modeling of Wait Times Between Storm-Level Kp Occurrences

Dec 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005agufmsm13a0316r&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2005, abstract #SM13A-0316

Other

7833 Mathematical And Numerical Techniques (0500, 3200), 7857 Stochastic Phenomena (3235, 3265, 4475), 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7954 Magnetic Storms (2788), 7959 Models

Scientific paper

We consider the modeling of the occurrence in time of large Kp magnetic storms as a Poisson process; testing whether or not relatively rare, large Kp events can be considered to arise from a stochastic, sequential, and memoryless process. For a Poisson process, the wait times between successive events occur statistically with an exponential density function. If we define these wait-time durations straightforwardly, by simply calculating the differences between times when Kp exceeds a certain value, such as Kp>=6, then we find the wait-time distribution is not exponential. Within a large storm, there often are several intervals with large Kp values. Their occurrence in time is not memoryless; they are not independent of each other, and are, in fact, clumped together in time. If we filter out same-storm large Kp occurrences, the resulting wait times are very nearly exponentially distributed and the storm arrival process might, therefore, be characterized as Poisson. A number of fittings are performed for different Kp thresholds, their statistical significances are given, and some remaining issues are discussed.

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