Forecasting the Intensity of Magnetic Storms Caused by N→S Type of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds

Details Forecasting the Intensity of Magnetic Storms Caused by N→S Type of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds Forecasting the Intensity of Magnetic Storms Caused by N→S Type of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds

Dec 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005agufmsh23a0334l&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2005, abstract #SH23A-0334

Statistics

2111 Ejecta, Driver Gases, And Magnetic Clouds, 2134 Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, 2788 Magnetic Storms And Substorms (7954)

Scientific paper

A scheme developed to forecast in near real time the value of minimum Dst, and its time of occurrence, during a magnetic storm caused by the passage of a N→S type of magnetic cloud (MC) is described. [N→S refers to the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field within a MC going from north (+) to south (-) in GSE coordinates.] This type of MC is expected to be most common starting with solar cycle 24 (i.e, year 2007). The scheme uses a program recently developed to automatically identify MCs and cloud-like regions of any type passing Earth. The MC identification program can use real-time magnetic field and plasma data from a spacecraft upstream of Earth, such as ACE, in a mode that enables prediction of min Bz in the latter part of the MC from the measured earlier portion of that MC using the latest version of our MC model parameter fitting scheme*. The original identification scheme has been augmented to determine handedness and to more accurately estimate the occurrence time of the MC's front boundary and center time. Previously developed relationships between Bzmin and VBzmin of the solar wind with Dst are utilized in the forecasting, where V is the plasma speed at minimum Bz which is close to the average speed of the MC. The overall forecasting scheme has been extensively tested using data from previously observed WIND N→S type MC regions, augmented with S→N type of MCs made to look like N→S types (to improve statistics), giving a total of 27 test MCs, after some quality editing. From this it was determined that typically, for prediction purposes, input field data from as much as the first 70% of a MC must be used to acceptably reproduce model parameter-values that result when the full 100% duration of the MC is used. The overall scheme and its test results will be described in detail.
*Reference: Lepping et al., J. Geophys. Res., vol. 95, 11957, 1990.

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