Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Dec 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005agufmsh23a0323k&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2005, abstract #SH23A-0323
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
7500 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy, 7514 Energetic Particles (2114)
Scientific paper
We have developed a system that watches for count rate increases recorded in real time by eight neutron monitors, and gives an alarm when a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) is detected. In this work, we determine optimal strategies for detecting the GLE event at a very early stage, while still keeping the false alarm rate from glitches at a very low level. The January 20, 2005 event will be used to illustrate our methods. A reliable system is developed with an algorithm that produces alarms in three levels according to the number of stations showing an increase. We study past events to optimize appropriate intensity threshold values and a baseline to determine the intensity increase. At the highest level alarm produced by the three stations increase, a false alarm rate expected from the observed data during the past five years become zero. Alarm times of GLEs examined from the most recent nine events are compared with satellite proton data. The GLE alert would precede the earliest alert from GOES (100 MeV or 10 MeV protons) by ~10-20 minutes. For the January 20 event, the GLE alert (3 stations) was generated 12 minutes prior to the earliest GOES alert. The realtime GLE data may be viewed at http://neutronm.bartol.udel.edu/spaceweather. An automated e-mail alert system is under development. Supported by NSF grants ATM-0207196 and ATM-0000315.
Bieber John W.
Clem James
Evenson Paul
Kuwabara Takao
Pyle Roger
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