Some heuristics about elliptic curves

Details Some heuristics about elliptic curves Some heuristics about elliptic curves

2006-08-30

arxiv.org/abs/math/0608766v2

Mathematics

Number Theory

Scientific paper

We give some heuristics for counting elliptic curves with certain properties. In particular, we re-derive the Brumer-McGuinness heuristic for the number of curves with positive/negative discriminant up to $X$, which is an application of lattice-point counting. We then introduce heuristics (with refinements from random matrix theory) that allow us to predict how often we expect an elliptic curve $E$ with even parity to have $L(E,1)=0$. We find that we expect there to be about $c_1X^{19/24}(\log X)^{3/8}$ curves with $|\Delta|

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