The population of big Earth approachers from their cumulative distribution and their impact frequency

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Near-Earth Objects: Distribution, Population, Impacts

Scientific paper

The total numbers of big Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and Earth crossing asteroids (ECAs) are assessed from their cumulative distributions as a function of the absolute magnitude H. More than 1300 and probably even more than 1500 "big" NEAs with H≤18.0 may exist. About half of them belong to big ECAs. The intrinsic collision probability for the Earth Pi is derived from the number of asteroid approaches to the Earth within a distance of 0.1 AU and during a time period of 150 yr. According to the known population of big asteroids Pi is about 43×-18 yr-1km-2 only. The potentially big killers hit the Earth surface probably 3 times per million years, while smaller objects with H≤23.0 do so every 1000-2000 years.

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