Prediction of future fifteen solar cycles

Details Prediction of future fifteen solar cycles Prediction of future fifteen solar cycles

2007-04-11

arxiv.org/abs/0704.1346v1

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

5 pages, 2 figures and one table

Scientific paper

In the previous study (Hiremath 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755-1996), long-term amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these physical parameters of the previous 22 solar cycles and by an {\em autoregressive model}, we predict the amplitude and period of the future fifteen solar cycles. Predicted amplitude of the present solar cycle (23) matches very well with the observations. The period of the present cycle is found to be 11.73 years. With these encouraging results, we also predict the profiles of future 15 solar cycles. Important predictions are : (i) the period and amplitude of the cycle 24 are 9.34 years and 110 ($\pm 11$), (ii) the period and amplitude of the cycle 25 are 12.49 years and 110 ($\pm$ 11), (iii) during the cycles 26 (2030-2042 AD), 27 (2042-2054 AD), 34 (2118-2127 AD), 37 (2152-2163 AD) and 38 (2163-2176 AD), the sun might experience a very high sunspot activity, (iv) the sun might also experience a very low (around 60) sunspot activity during cycle 31 (2089-2100 AD) and, (v) length of the solar cycles vary from 8.65 yrs for the cycle 33 to maximum of 13.07 yrs for the cycle 35.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Prediction of future fifteen solar cycles does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Prediction of future fifteen solar cycles, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Prediction of future fifteen solar cycles will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-672854