Too Soon for Doom Gloom?

Details Too Soon for Doom Gloom? Too Soon for Doom Gloom?

1994-07-04

arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9407002v1

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology

11 pages, LaTeX, Alberta-Thy-17-94

Scientific paper

The observation that we are among the first $10^{11}$ or so humans reduces the prior probability that we find ourselves in a species whose total lifetime number of individuals is much higher, according to arguments of Carter, Leslie, Nielsen, and Gott. However, if we instead start with a prior probability that a history has a total lifetime number which is very large, without assuming that we are in such a history, this more basic probability is not reduced by the observation of how early in history we exist.

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