Designing a Bayesian Network for Preventive Maintenance from Expert Opinions in a Rapid and Reliable Way

Details Designing a Bayesian Network for Preventive Maintenance from Expert Opinions in a Rapid and Reliable Way Designing a Bayesian Network for Preventive Maintenance from Expert Opinions in a Rapid and Reliable Way

2009-05-18

arxiv.org/abs/0905.2864v1

Statistics

Methodology

Scientific paper

In this study, a Bayesian Network (BN) is considered to represent a nuclear plant mechanical system degradation. It describes a causal representation of the phenomena involved in the degradation process. Inference from such a BN needs to specify a great number of marginal and conditional probabilities. As, in the present context, information is based essentially on expert knowledge, this task becomes very complex and rapidly impossible. We present a solution which consists of considering the BN as a log-linear model on which simplification constraints are assumed. This approach results in a considerable decrease in the number of probabilities to be given by experts. In addition, we give some simple rules to choose the most reliable probabilities. We show that making use of those rules allows to check the consistency of the derived probabilities. Moreover, we propose a feedback procedure to eliminate inconsistent probabilities. Finally, the derived probabilities that we propose to solve the equations involved in a realistic Bayesian network are expected to be reliable. The resulting methodology to design a significant and powerful BN is applied to a reactor coolant sub-component in EDF Nuclear plants in an illustrative purpose.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Designing a Bayesian Network for Preventive Maintenance from Expert Opinions in a Rapid and Reliable Way does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Designing a Bayesian Network for Preventive Maintenance from Expert Opinions in a Rapid and Reliable Way, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Designing a Bayesian Network for Preventive Maintenance from Expert Opinions in a Rapid and Reliable Way will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-609433