Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate

Details Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate

2011-12-24

arxiv.org/abs/1112.5721v1

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics

7 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in SCIENCE CHINA Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy

Scientific paper

10.1007/s11433-011-4612-6

The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects the temporal evolution of the dynamic process of solar magnetic activities from the initial phase to the peak phase of the cycle. The correlation coefficient between the solar maximum (Rmax) and the rising rate ({\beta}a) at {\Delta}m months after the solar minimum (Rmin) is studied and shown to increase as the cycle progresses with an inflection point (r = 0.83) at about {\Delta}m = 20 months. The prediction error of Rmax based on {\beta}a is found within estimation at the 90% level of confidence and the relative prediction error will be less than 20% when {\Delta}m \geq 20. From the above relationship, the current cycle (24) is preliminarily predicted to peak around October 2013 with a size of Rmax =84 \pm 33 at the 90% level of confidence.

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