Limitations of Bayesian Evidence Applied to Cosmology

Details Limitations of Bayesian Evidence Applied to Cosmology Limitations of Bayesian Evidence Applied to Cosmology

2008-02-21

arxiv.org/abs/0802.3185v2

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

8 pages 4 figures MNRAS accepted. Substantially revised and extended

Scientific paper

10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.13498.x

There has been increasing interest by cosmologists in applying Bayesian techniques, such as Bayesian Evidence, for model selection. A typical example is in assessing whether observational data favour a cosmological constant over evolving dark energy. In this paper, the example of dark energy is used to illustrate limitations in the application of Bayesian Evidence associated with subjective judgements concerning the choice of model and priors. An analysis of recent cosmological data shows a statistically insignificant preference for a cosmological constant over simple dynamical models of dark energy. It is argued that for nested problems, as considered here, Bayesian parameter estimation can be more informative than computing Bayesian Evidence for poorly motivated physical models.

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