Some notes concerning the prediction of the amplitude of the two solar activity cycles

Details Some notes concerning the prediction of the amplitude of the two solar activity cycles Some notes concerning the prediction of the amplitude of the two solar activity cycles

2007-06-12

arxiv.org/abs/0706.1624v1

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

5 pages, 5 figures

Scientific paper

The parameter G, which is determined from the general number of sunspots groups Ng according to the daily observations G=Sum(1/Ng)^2, is offered. This parameter is calculated for the days when there is at least one sunspots group. It characterizes the minimum epoch solar activity. Parameter G mounts to the maximum during the epoch close to the minimal activity of sunspots. According too the data of the sequence of sunspots group in Greenwich-USAF/NOAA observatory format, observation data of Kislovodsk solar station and also daily Wolf number the changes of parameter G during 100 years were reconstructed. It is demonstrated in the paper that parameter G's amplitude in minimal solar activity n is linked with the sunspot cycle's amplitude Wn+1. The 24th activity cycle prediction is calculated, which makes W24=135(+/-12).

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