Biology – Quantitative Biology – Populations and Evolution
Scientific paper
2004-02-05
Biology
Quantitative Biology
Populations and Evolution
30 pages, 9 figures, submitted to Demographic Research <see http://www.demographic-research.org>
Scientific paper
Trends in human longevity are puzzling, especially when considering the limits of human longevity. Partially, the conflicting assertions are based upon demographic evidence and the interpretation of survival and mortality curves using the Gompertz model and the Weibull model; these models are sometimes considered to be incomplete in describing the entire curves. In this paper a new model is proposed to take the place of the traditional models. We directly analysed the rectangularity (the parts of the curves being shaped like a rectangle) of survival curves for 17 countries and for 1876-2001 in Switzerland (it being one of the longest-lived countries) with a new model. This model is derived from the Weibull survival function and is simply described by two parameters, in which the shape parameter indicates 'rectangularity' and characteristic life indicates the duration for survival to be 'exp(-1)'. The shape parameter is essentially a function of age and it distinguishes humans from technical devices. We find that although characteristic life has increased up to the present time, the slope of the shape parameter for middle age has been saturated in recent decades and that the rectangularity above characteristic life has been suppressed, suggesting there are ultimate limits to human longevity. The new model and subsequent findings will contribute greatly to the interpretation and comprehension of our knowledge on the human ageing processes.
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