Does the rapid appearance of life on Earth suggest that life is common in the Universe?

Details Does the rapid appearance of life on Earth suggest that life is common in the Universe? Does the rapid appearance of life on Earth suggest that life is common in the Universe?

2002-05-02

arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0205014v2

published in "Astrobiology" Fall 2002, Vol. 2, Number 2, pp 293-304

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

21 pages, 5 figures, conforms to published version, Figure 5 corrected lowering probability cited in previous version, referen

Scientific paper

10.1089/153110702762027871

It is sometimes assumed that the rapidity of biogenesis on Earth suggests that life is common in the Universe. Here we critically examine the assumptions inherent in this if-life-evolved-rapidly-life-must-be-common argument. We use the observational constraints on the rapidity of biogenesis on Earth to infer the probability of biogenesis on terrestrial planets with the same unknown probability of biogenesis as the Earth. We find that on such planets, older than ~ 1 Gyr, the probability of biogenesis is > 13% at the 95% confidence level. This quantifies an important term in the Drake Equation but does not necessarily mean that life is common in the Universe.

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