Progress in Space Weather Modeling and Observations Needed to Improve the Operational NAIRAS Model Aircraft Radiation Exposure Predictions

Details Progress in Space Weather Modeling and Observations Needed to Improve the Operational NAIRAS Model Aircraft Radiation Exposure Predictions Progress in Space Weather Modeling and Observations Needed to Improve the Operational NAIRAS Model Aircraft Radiation Exposure Predictions

Dec 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsm24b..03m&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SM24B-03

Other

[7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7938] Space Weather / Impacts On Humans, [7959] Space Weather / Models, [7984] Space Weather / Space Radiation Environment

Scientific paper

The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a prototype operational model for predicting commercial aircraft radiation exposure from galactic and solar cosmic rays. NAIRAS predictions are currently streaming live from the project's public website, and the exposure rate nowcast is also available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, IPad, and Android. Cosmic rays are the primary source of human exposure to high linear energy transfer radiation at aircraft altitudes, which increases the risk of cancer and other adverse health effects. Thus, the NAIRAS model addresses an important national need with broad societal, public health and economic benefits. The processes responsible for the variability in the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, solar energetic particle spectrum, and the dynamical response of the magnetosphere to these space environment inputs, strongly influence the composition and energy distribution of the atmospheric ionizing radiation field. During the development of the NAIRAS model, new science questions were identified that must be addressed in order to obtain a more reliable and robust operational model of atmospheric radiation exposure. Addressing these science questions require improvements in both space weather modeling and observations. The focus of this talk is to present these science questions, the proposed methodologies for addressing these science questions, and the anticipated improvements to the operational predictions of atmospheric radiation exposure. The overarching goal of this work is to provide a decision support tool for the aviation industry that will enable an optimal balance to be achieved between minimizing health risks to passengers and aircrew while simultaneously minimizing costs to the airline companies.

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