Long term solar activity forecasting using high-resolution time spectral analysis

Details Long term solar activity forecasting using high-resolution time spectral analysis Long term solar activity forecasting using high-resolution time spectral analysis

Mar 1977

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1977natur.266..151h&link_type=abstract

Nature, vol. 266, Mar. 10, 1977, p. 151-153. Navy-supported research.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

8

High Resolution, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Activity, Spectrum Analysis, Sunspot Cycle, Astronomical Models, Fourier Series, Solar Spectra, Statistical Analysis

Scientific paper

The spectrum-analysis method developed by Paul (1972) is used to show that the monthly sunspot record for the period from 1749 to 1975 is represented by a Fourier series. Some 2724 monthly sunspot values are analyzed to determine the frequencies of periodicities as well as the amplitude and phase of each spectral line in the cited sunspot activity record. The results show that there are lines in the sunspot record, as indicated in Wolff's (1976) mode model, and that the modes are long-lived but may persist for centuries instead of millenia. A forecast is made which predicts that the current solar cycle began in December 1976 and will peak between 130 and 200 during 1981 or 1982.

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