Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Feb 1990
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1990ge%26ae..30..455b&link_type=abstract
Geomagn. Aeron., Vol. 30, No. 4, p. 455 - 460
Mathematics
Logic
Solar Flares: Predictions
Scientific paper
A review of present-day theoretical investigations of the problem of the accumulation and release of energy in solar flares permits advancing the opinion that only individual flare events are described by a concrete model and that a single model alone does not describe the entire diversity of flares. Consideration of the observational data does not permit claiming the existence of a single universal mechanism known today of flare events. It appears possible to treat the problem of prediction in terms of the algebra of logic (Boolean logic) and to compare the truth table with the often-used contingency table. The introduction of a number of very general assumptions permits forming a general approach to the development of predictive schemes and selection of the individual elements of the models and informative criteria. Experimental results are given on the testing of some prediction procedures. The author's procedure of routine short-term prediction of flares on the basis of the methods of instruction on pattern recognition implemented in the form of a set of programs is outlined. The results of the application of this procedure in 1986 - 1988 are presented.
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