Predictability of the long term variations of monthly mean sunspot numbers.

Details Predictability of the long term variations of monthly mean sunspot numbers. Predictability of the long term variations of monthly mean sunspot numbers.

Jan 1995

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1995acaps..15...84z&link_type=abstract

Acta Astrophys. Sin., Vol. 15, No. 1, p. 84 - 89

Mathematics

Dynamical Systems

3

Sunspot Numbers: Forecasts

Scientific paper

The predictability of the monthly mean variations of the relative sunspot number for the period of time from January 1850 to May 1992 is examined based upon the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems. The attractor of the variation process is reconstructed using the method of time delays. The attractor is used to compute its largest Lyapunov exponent (λ1 = 0.023±0.004 bits/month). The results indicate that the predictability of a dynamical system is directly related to the largest Lyapunov exponent of the system, and the evolution for the monthly mean variation process of the relative sunspot number is neither periodic nor quasiperiodic, but is chaotic. Its long term deterministic behaviour is unpredictable, even if one has known a deterministic set of equations describing the process in the future.

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