A Near-Earth Object Hazard Index

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Hazards, Collisions, Asteroid Detection, Asteroids, Cometary Collisions, Probability Theory, Surveys, Asteroid Collisions

Scientific paper

With the advent of expanded near-Earth object (NEO) surveys, the number of known close approaches to Earth will increase dramatically. For many of these objects, uncertainties in their preliminary orbits will result in calculations yielding nonzero probabilities of collision over the next century. An index system is proposed which places the hazard posed by any given close approach into an easily understandable context that allows simple and efficient communication between astronomers and the public.

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