Orbital Evolution and Stability of the Inner Uranian Moons

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Scientific paper

Nine densely-packed inner moons of Uranus show signs of chaos and orbital instability over a variety of time scales. Many moons show measureable orbital changes within a decade or less. Long-term integrations predict that some moons could collide in less than one million years. One faint ring embedded in the system may, in fact, be the debris left behind from an earlier such collision. Meanwhile, the nearby moon Mab falls well outside the influence of the others but nevertheless shows rapid, as yet unexplained, changes in its orbit. It is embedded within a dust ring that also shows surprising variability. A highly optimized series of observations with WFC3 over the next three cycles will address some of the fundamental open questions about this dynamically active system: Do the orbits truly show evidence of chaos? If so, over what time scales? What can we say about the masses of the moons involved? What is the nature of the variations in Mab's orbit? Is Mab's motion predictable or random? Astrometry will enable us to derive the orbital elements of these moons with 10-km precision. This will be sufficient to study the year-by-year changes and, combined with other data from 2003-2007, the decadal evolution of the orbits. The pairing of precise astrometry with numerical integrations will enable us to derive new dynamical constraints on the masses of these moons. Mass is the fundamental unknown quantity currently limiting our ability to reproduce the interactions within this system. This program will also capitalize upon our best opportunity for nearly 40 years to study the unexplained variations in Uranus's faint outer rings.;

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