On the connection of cosmic ray long-term variation with sunspot numbers: convection-diffusion and drift modulations in the Heliosphere

Details On the connection of cosmic ray long-term variation with sunspot numbers: convection-diffusion and drift modulations in the Heliosphere On the connection of cosmic ray long-term variation with sunspot numbers: convection-diffusion and drift modulations in the Heliosphere

Aug 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006iaujd...8e..68d&link_type=abstract

Solar and Stellar Activity Cycles, 26th meeting of the IAU, Joint Discussion 8, 17-18 August 2006, Prague, Czech Republic, JD08,

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Scientific paper

On the basis of results obtained in our investigations of CR-SA hysteresis effects we determine the dimension of Heliosphere (modulation region), radial diffusion coefficient and other parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms of cosmic ray (CR) long term variation in dependence of particles energy, level of solar activity (SA) and general solar magnetic field. This important information we obtain on the basis of CR and SA data in the past taking into account the theory of convection-diffusion and drift global modulation of galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and published regularly elsewhere predictions of expected sunspot number variation in near future and prediction of future next SA cycle we may made prediction of expected in near future (up to 10-12 years) long-term CR intensity variation. From other hand, we use estimated properties of connection between CR intensity long-term variation and some part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through CR. We show that by this way we may made prediction of expected in near future (up to 10-12 years) some part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through CR. We show that in this case become important also estimation of expected long-term changes in the planetary distribution of cutoff rigidities which also influenced on CR intensity, and through CR - influenced on global climate variation.

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