Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009agufmpp33b..05h&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #PP33B-05
Mathematics
Probability
[5420] Planetary Sciences: Solid Surface Planets / Impact Phenomena, Cratering, [6000] Planetary Sciences: Comets And Small Bodies, [6022] Planetary Sciences: Comets And Small Bodies / Impact Phenomena
Scientific paper
Firestone et al. (PNAS 104, 16016-16021, 2007) propose that the impact of a ~4 km diameter comet (or multiple bodies making up a similar mass) led to the Younger Dryas cooling and extinction of megafauna in North America, 12,900 years ago. Even more provocatively, Firestone et al. (Cycle of Cosmic Catastrophes, Bear & Co. Books, 2006, 392pp), suggest that a nearby supernova may have produced a comet shower leading to the impact event, either by disturbing the Oort Cloud or by direct injection of 4-km comet-like bodies to the solar neighborhood. Here we show: (a) A supernova shockwave or mass ejection is not capable of triggering a shower of comets from the Oort Cloud. (b) An Oort Cloud shower from whatever cause would take 100,000 years or more for the perturbed comets to arrive in the inner solar system, and the peak flux would persist for some hundreds of thousands more years. (c) Even if all 20 solar masses or so of ejected matter from a SN were in the form of 4-km diameter balls, the probability of even one such ball hitting the Earth from an event 100 light years away would be about 3e-5. (d) A 4-km diameter ball traveling fast enough to get here from 100 LY away in some tens of thousands of years would deliver the energy of a 50 km diameter impactor traveling at typical Earth-impact velocity (~20 km/sec). We review the current impact flux on the Earth from asteroids and comets, and show that the probability of an impact of a 4-km diameter asteroid in an interval of 13,000 years is about one in a thousand, and the probability of a comet impact of that size is a few in a million. An "impact shower" caused by the injection or breakup of comets or asteroids in the inner solar system by whatever means would take tens to hundreds of thousands of years to clear out, thus the population of NEOs we see now with our telescopic surveys is what we’ve had for the last few tens of thousands of years, at least. Faced with such low odds, the evidence that such a large cosmic impact is the cause of the Younger Dryas boundary and cooling, and that there is no other possible cause, needs to be extraordinary indeed.
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