Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Dec 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009agufmgc11a0679k&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #GC11A-0679
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
[1616] Global Change / Climate Variability, [1622] Global Change / Earth System Modeling, [7514] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Energetic Particles, [7538] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Solar Irradiance
Scientific paper
Many people believe that the sudden stratospheric warmings (triggering occurrence of extreme winter time weather conditions over Eurasia and North America) are forced by a strong planetary wave activity, propagating upward into the troposphere-stratosphere system. The recently raised scepticism, regarding the leading role of planetary waves in formation of this phenomenon, is based on the argument that the vertical propagation of planetary wave strongly depends on the stratospheric dynamics. It is well documented now that stratospheric thermo-dynamical regime is strongly influenced by variability of solar UV and corpuscular radiation, galactic cosmic rays, internal stratospheric modes like QBO (quasi biennial oscillation of equatorial stratospheric wind), Arctic Oscillation, etc. Our analysis of individual events does not confirm the presumable planetary wave importance and reveal the greatest impart of solar UV and particle precipitation intensity. In this report we will present results from a multiple factorial analysis of ERA-40 reanalysis, midday data for temperature (T), zonal wind (U) and ozone (O3) mixing ratio in the period of preparation of sudden stratospheric warmings, examining the whole period of available data (1957-2002). We have tried to answer the question: Are the different stratospheric warmings are forced in different ways? We will show that the splitting type major warmings are preconditioned by a massive heating of the upper stratosphere (touching the core of the polar vortex) and consequent severe deceleration of polar jet. The source of this heating is a bulk of O3 produced by highly energetic solar protons, at very high solar zenith angles. The displacement type warmings occur when the heating of polar stratosphere (below 10 hPa) is confined near the pole. In this case it is attributed to a slight increase of the lower stratospheric O3 over the polar cap and/or to NO2 absorption of visible solar radiation in the range of 325-570 nm. From these results it follows that continuous monitoring of T and O3 distribution may be used for prediction of sudden stratospheric warmings.
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