Space Weather: Solar wind and predicting geomagnetic storms on Earth

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2114 Energetic Particles, 2722 Forecasting, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions

Scientific paper

Spacecraft observations of the solar wind are often used as a predictor of conditions at Earth for studies of magnetospheric response to the solar wind. Measurements of magnetic field and plasma parameters obtained at the Lagrangian (L1) point were studied previously and it was found that the disturbances recorded there (L1 is about 235 Earth radii upstream or Sunward) do not always correspond to a similar changes observed downstream at Earth. Here we explore the correlation between spacecraft data and the occurrence of major geomagnetic storms, defined as events with a daily Ap index exceeding 30. Multiple spacecraft observations (ISEE 1, ISEE3, IMP 8, WIND, INTERBALL-1) covering nearly a full solar cycle are used to obtain relevant solar wind parameters characterizing each event. These features, as they propagate from one satellite to the other, are identified and their velocity and orientation determined by maximizing the correlation coefficients between different sets! of spacecraft data. We discuss the common features resulting in major storms on Earth, and the reliability of L1 measurements to predict their occurrence.

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