Predicting Electron Precipitation Based on Geomagnetic Conditions

Details Predicting Electron Precipitation Based on Geomagnetic Conditions Predicting Electron Precipitation Based on Geomagnetic Conditions

May 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agusmsh52a..13w&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2002, abstract #SH52A-13

Statistics

Applications

2716 Energetic Particles, Precipitating, 2722 Forecasting, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2407 Auroral Ionosphere (2704), 2455 Particle Precipitation

Scientific paper

We have developed a statistical model of precipitating electrons based on 10 years worth of NOAA-12 Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data. For each hour of UT, the electron spectral shape is defined for solar activity (using F10.7), geomagnetic activity (using Dst, Kp, and PC), invariant latitude (40° to 90 ° N and -40 ° to -90 ° S), and every hour of magnetic local time to form a climatology. The current version of our climatology includes a description of the precipitating differential number flux, unfolded from the integral high-energy telescopes of SEM and its lower-energy differential measurements. In total, the energy range covered by SEM is from 300 eV to 1 MeV. We use real-time Dst predictions from several sites on the Internet to obtain the Dst value for retrieving the corresponding precipitating electron flux up to one hour ahead of time. Our electron precipitation forecast contributes to space weather applications by predicting a spectral description of atmospheric electron energy input. These electron energy spectra can be used to predict atmospheric energy input, ionization rates, and height integrated Hall and Pedersen conductivities. Predicted fluxes can also be used as input to spacecraft charging models to estimate the spacecraft charge or for radiation damage assessment.

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