Computer Science
Scientific paper
Jul 1984
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1984stin...8434388w&link_type=abstract
Unknown
Computer Science
Periodic Variations, Sun, Sunspot Cycle, Sunspots, Time Dependence, Bibliographies, Data Smoothing, Regression Analysis
Scientific paper
Sunspot records are systematically maintained, with the knowledge that an 11 year average period exists since about 1850. Thus, the sunspot record of highest quality and considered to be the most reliable is that of cycle eight through the present. On the basis of cycles 8 through 20, various combinations of sine curves were used to approximate the observed RMAX values (where RMAX is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum). It is found that a three component sinusoidal function, having an 11 cycle and a 2 cycle variation on a 90 cycle periodicity, yields computed RMAX values which fit, reasonably well, observed RMAX values for the modern sunspot cycles. Extrapolation of the empirical functions forward in time allows for the projection of values of RMAX for cycles 21 and 22. For cycle 21, the function projects a value of 157.3, very close to the actually observed value of 164.5. For cycle 22, the function projects a value of about 107. Linear regressions applied to cycle 22 indicate a long-period cycle (cycle duration 132 months). An extensive bibliography on techniques used to estimate the time dependent behavior of sunspot cycles is provided.
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