Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Apr 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008jsrs.meet..210g&link_type=abstract
"Proceedings of the "Journées Systèmes de Référence Spatio-temporels 2007". Observatoire de Paris, 17-19 September 2007. Editor:
Mathematics
Logic
1
Scientific paper
Real-time orbitography and interplanetary navigation require accurate predictions of Universal Time UT1. On time scales of up to 10 days, variations in earth rotation are mostly due to dynamic effects of the atmosphere. Therefore, the axial Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) series can be used as a proxy index to predict UT1 (Feissel et al., 1988; Gambis, 1990) . In the present work, we have been using AAM forecasts derived by three independent centres, i.e. the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NCEP, formerly NMC), the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO). An adaptive procedure is being applied on a real-time basis in the frame of the EOP Prediction Campaign (Kalarus et al; 2007, same issue). We give the statistics concerning the prediction performances obtained in the process. They are in the range of respectively 300 and 600 microseconds for a forecast lead time of 5 and 10 days roughly twice better than the current predictions directly based on statistical procedures applied onto the earth orientation C04 time series.
Gambis Daniel
Richard J.-Y.
Salstein David
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