Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Oct 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3519607w&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 19, CiteID L19607
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
15
Nonlinear Geophysics: Nonlinear Differential Equations, Oceanography: Physical: Decadal Ocean Variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 4215), Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Solar Activity Cycle (2162)
Scientific paper
El Nino/La Nina episodes represent warm/cool phases of 2- to 7-yr period El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system. Modeling studies find ENSO self-excited or driven by ambient noise. Here we find most El Nino and La Nina episodes from 1900-2005 grouped into non-commuting pairs that repeat every ~11 yrs, aligned with rising and falling transition phases of the ~11-yr period quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO). These alignments arise from non-linear phase locking of 3rd and 5th harmonics near 3.6- and 2.2-yr to the 1st harmonic near 11-yr period. Here we find these alignments replicated in both coupled general circulation model and conceptual model driven by 11-yr solar forcing, wherein the solar-forced 1st harmonic initiates a non-linear cascade of higher odd harmonics that are phase-locked with the same alignments as observed. These solar-forced 3rd and 5th harmonics explain ~52% of inter-annual variance in the Nino-3 temperature index from 1900-2005.
Liu Zhengyu
White Warren B.
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