Earth's precession nutation motion: the error analysis of the theories IAU 2000 and IAU 2006 applying the VLBI data of the years 1984 2006

Details Earth's precession nutation motion: the error analysis of the theories IAU 2000 and IAU 2006 applying the VLBI data of the years 1984 2006 Earth's precession nutation motion: the error analysis of the theories IAU 2000 and IAU 2006 applying the VLBI data of the years 1984 2006

Aug 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008cemda.101..325k&link_type=abstract

Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy, Volume 101, Issue 4, pp.325-336

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

3

Earth Rotation, Tides, Love Numbers, Vlbi Observations, Earth&Rsquo, S Precession&Ndash, Nutation

Scientific paper

The long-term systematic errors of the analytical theories IAU 2000 and IAU 2006 of the Earth’s precession nutational motion are studied making use of the VLBI data of 1984 2007. Several independent methods give indubitable evidence of the significant quadratic error {dφ = (23 ± 3) mas/cy^2} in the IAU 2000 residuals of the precessional angle {φ} while the adopted value of the secular decrease {dot e=-7.9× 10^{-9}} /cy of the Earth’s ellipticity e (derived from Satellite Laser Ranging data) should manifest itself in the residuals of {φ} as the negative quadratic trend {dφ_{dot e} ≈ -8 mas/{cy}^2} . The problem with the precession of the IAU 2006 theory adopted as a new international standard and based on the precession model P03 (Capitaine et al., Astron Astrophys 432:355 367, 2005) appears to be even more serious because the above mentioned quadratic term {dφ_{dot e}} has already been incorporated into the P03 precession. Our analysis of the VLBI data demonstrates that the quadratic trend of the IAU 2006 residuals {dφ} does amount to the expected value (30.0 ± 3) mas/cy2. It means, first, that the theoretical precession rate of IAU 2006 should be augmented by the large secular correction {dp_s=2 dφ ≈(60.0 ± 6) mas/cy^2} and, second, that the available VLBI data have potentiality of estimating the rate {dot e} . And indeed, processing these data by the numerical theory ERA of the Earth’s rotation (Krasinsky, Celest Mech Dyn Astron 96:169 217, 2006, Krasinsky and Vasilyev, Celest Mech Dyn Astron 96:219 237, 2006) yields the estimate {dot e=-(14 ± 4)× 10^{-9}} /cy statistically in accordance with the satellite-based {dot e} . On the other hand, applying IAU 2000/2006 models, the positive value {dot e=(27 ± 4)× 10^{-9}}/cy is found which is incompatible with the SLR estimate and, evidently, has no physical meaning. The large and steadily increasing error of the precession motion of the IAU 2006 theory makes the task of replacing IAU 2006 by a more accurate model be most pressing.

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