Estimation of TSI Variability During the Declining Phase of Cycle 23

Details Estimation of TSI Variability During the Declining Phase of Cycle 23 Estimation of TSI Variability During the Declining Phase of Cycle 23

May 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005agusmsh23b..06w&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2005, abstract #SH23B-06

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

7500 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy, 7536 Solar Activity Cycle (2162), 7537 Solar And Stellar Variability, 7538 Solar Irradiance

Scientific paper

Our previous study gave an empirical model with only two solar activity indices that reproduced TSI measurements from 1996 to 2003 in Cycle 23 to within 100 ppm rms (de Toma et al., 2004). The indices used in the model are: a photometric index derived from full-disk images in the red continuum at 672.3nm taken at San Fernando Solar Observatory (the Sigma-red index) and a chromospheric index based on irradiance measurements in the MgII doublet at 280nm (the MgII core/wing index). Here, we recompute the empirical model using the latest VIRGO TSI measurements during the rising and maximum phase of Cycle 23 and compute TSI estimates from the maximum of Cycle 23 toward the next minimum. Comparison between extrapolations of the model and TSI observations gives insight on the predictive capability of the model.

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