Developments of research on prediction of earthquakes, tsunami and volcanic eruptions in Far East

Details Developments of research on prediction of earthquakes, tsunami and volcanic eruptions in Far East Developments of research on prediction of earthquakes, tsunami and volcanic eruptions in Far East

Aug 1984

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1984rpesc.......62.&link_type=abstract

In its USSR Rept.: Earth Sci. (JPRS-UES-84-006) p 62-63 (SEE N84-30479 20-42) Transl. into ENGLISH from Vestn. Akad. Nauk SSSR

Statistics

Cycles, Earthquakes, Forecasting, Seismology, Tsunami Waves, Volcanology, Chemical Analysis, Coasts, Lunar Tides, Magnetic Fields, Pacific Ocean, Statistical Analysis

Scientific paper

The advances in research on prediction of earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions in the Far East are discussed. A knowledge of the properties of the seismic cycle makes it possible to predict the probable number of weak and intermediate earthquakes. Prediction of the time of strong earthquakes is improved by the discovery of a dependence between the number of these earthquakes and the phase of the lunar tide with a period of 18.6 years. In the field of short range prediction a search for precursors is centered on study of the statistics of earthquakes, the patterns of distribution of their foci, earthquake spectra, deformations of the Earth's surface, anomalies of earth currents, discharge and chemical composition of ground water. Work on the search for precursors employs systems of telemetric seismic and tiltmeter stations, repeated geodetic measurements, measurements of the magnetic field and seismic probing. Some successes in short range prediction are evident. The tsunami danger is regionalized; it is taken into account in construction work on the Pacific coast. One of the most important problems in operation of the tsunami-warning system is the reduction of false alarms.

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