History of solar proton event observations.

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Solar Protons: Solar-Terrestrial Relations, Solar Protons: Statistics, Solar Protons: Solar Activity Cycles, Solar Cosmic Rays: Predictions

Scientific paper

Solar flare effects and related solar particle emissions can adversely affect the near Earth spatial environment. It is desirable to be able to predict when solar proton events will occur, how large they will be, and how long they will last. The authors examine the evolution of solar proton event observations and prediction from the early 1950s to the present time, the (unsuccessful) attempt to predict the distribution of events throughout the solar cycle, and the shift from solar flares to coronal mass ejections as a unique parameter necessary for solar proton events. Prompt, large magnitude, peak flux solar proton events are associated with solar activity on the western side of the solar disk; however, the long duration high fluence solar proton events are associated with major solar activity near the central meridian of the Sun that generates powerful interplanetary shocks which intersect the Earth.

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