Planetary close encounters - Probability distributions of resultant orbital elements and application to Hidalgo and Chiron

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Celestial Mechanics, Chiron, Orbital Elements, Planetary Orbits, Planets, Collisions, Deflection, Eccentricity, Probability Distribution Functions, Asteroids, Distribution, Orbits, Hidalgo, Chiron, Collisions, Distance, Techniques, Classification, Perturbations, Calculations, Eccentricity, Inclination, Comparisons, Motion, Celestial Mechanics

Scientific paper

A two two-body approach is taken to generate probability distributions of the orbital elements of an object after an encounter with a planet. Account is taken of the probability of an encounter with a planet. Account is taken of the probability of an encounter between an object in a predefined orbit and a planetary orbit. The object, once outside the influence of the planet, is assumed to follow a heliocentric elliptical orbit; a planetocentric hyperbola is followed near the planet. The model is found to be inaccurate for Chiron, which undergoes an angular deflection of 2-7 deg under the influence of Saturn or Uranus. The orbital path of Hidalgo, however, which is deflected by about 1 deg at the edge of the influences of Jupiter and Saturn, is closely followed by the model. Future applications of the model to Mars-crossing asteroids are indicated.

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