On 'Bimodality of the solar cycle' and the duration of cycle 21

Statistics

Scientific paper

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Mode (Statistics), Solar Cycles, Sunspot Cycle

Scientific paper

Data from the well-observed cycles 8-20 are used to study the duration of cycle 21 and the bimodality of the solar cycle which is clearly seen in the scatter diagrams of descent versus ascent durations. A linear fit for long-period cycles suggests that cycle 21 will have a 141-month cycle duration. Like cycle 11, cycle 21 is found to occur on the downward envelope of the sunspot number curve, yet to be associated with an upward first difference in amplitude. Similarities between the two cycles suggest that cycle 21 may also have an extended tail of sustained, low smoothed sunspot number, with the cycle 22 minimum occurring either in late 1987 or early 1988.

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