The analysis and forecasting of the Wolf sunspot numbers

Details The analysis and forecasting of the Wolf sunspot numbers The analysis and forecasting of the Wolf sunspot numbers

Mar 1980

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1980mnras.190..723l&link_type=abstract

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol. 190, Mar. 1980, p. 723-732.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

5

Prediction Analysis Techniques, Stellar Models, Sunspot Cycle, Annual Variations, Computer Programs, Energy Spectra, Frequency Response, Least Squares Method, Phase Modulation, Statistical Analysis, Variable Stars

Scientific paper

The paper analyzes the yearly mean Wolf sunspot numbers from 1700 to 1964 using techniques developed for short-period variable stars. The 14 statistically significant periodicities revealed by the analysis resulted from the amplitude and phase modulation of the main 11-yr periodicity by two long periods of 90 and 55 yr. Seasonally stationary autoregressive models of the sunspot numbers are constructed which show considerable improvement over previous autoregressive models by comparison of forecasts in and out of sample interval.

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