Other
Scientific paper
Oct 1976
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1976anah.iafcu....b&link_type=abstract
International Astronautical Federation, International Astronautical Congress, 27th, Anaheim, Calif., Oct. 10-16, 1976, 6 p.
Other
Extraterrestrial Life, Mathematical Models, Milky Way Galaxy, Dwarf Stars, Extraterrestrial Communication, Intelligence, M Stars, Population Theory
Scientific paper
It is argued that Drake's equation for estimating the number of communicative intelligent communities in the Galaxy is an oversimplification because it limits attention to the way in which life arose in the solar system. A modified equation is proposed which contains a sum of terms allowing for different paths to communicative life. Other refinements are discussed for taking account of communities in contact with each other, possibilities of space-dwelling colonies and automatic quasi-intelligent probes, as well as spatial and temporal inhomogeneity in all the relevant parameters. The net effect of the refinements is shown to indicate that the totality of intelligent life in the Galaxy is likely to exhibit evolution in time. It is concluded that perspectives should be broadened to include such parameters as the ratio of the number of links in a galactic chain of contacts to the number of communities now able to communicate but facing an uncertain future.
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