A Successful Forecast for Solar Activity Cycle 23

Details A Successful Forecast for Solar Activity Cycle 23 A Successful Forecast for Solar Activity Cycle 23

Apr 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002aps..aprk12007a&link_type=abstract

American Physical Society, April Meeting, Jointly Sponsored with the High Energy Astrophysics Division (HEAD) of the American As

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

Scientific paper

Since solar activity affects our quality of life in the space age (high tech era) that we live in, it is important that its level be forecast in a reliable manner, sufficiently ahead of time to allow for proper "planning." It is now recognized that "precursor" methods based on the observed time variations of the planetary index Ap (or equivalent aa index) provide a superior forecast of sunspot numbers (SSNs) at the cycle maximum (Rm), albeit they have a bias towards pedicting higher vales of Rm. In our opinion, this bias is related to the procedure used by some solar astronomers in forecasting values of Rm. We proposed a new procedure based on our discovery that the annual mean minimum values of Ap (which typically occur one year after SSN min) have embedded in them a three cycle quasiperiodicity which is linearly correlated with the amplitude of the smoothed (13 month running mean) SSN cycle. Our proceedure predicted that cycle 23 will be moderate (a la cycle 17) and its timeline will lie well below those for the most active cycles of the twentieth century ( cycles 18,19,21, 22). As of the end of last year, our forecast appears to be right on the mark. We describe and discuss the physical significance of lessons learned from this exercise.

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