Statistics – Applications
Scientific paper
Jan 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003aipc..654..257k&link_type=abstract
SPACE TECHNOLOGY AND APPLICATIONS INT.FORUM-STAIF 2003: Conf.on Thermophysics in Microgravity; Commercial/Civil Next Generation
Statistics
Applications
Transportation
Scientific paper
Recent commercial failures in the LEO market, declining budgets for research, and other political factors have made it difficult for entrepreneurs and financial institutions to realize returns from investments in new space transportation systems and satellites. This paper explores the major factors impacting future markets that make use of our space infrastructure. At the top of the list is the high cost of space access. This has been extremely expensive, and will continue to be expensive as long as space access remains low on the nation's priority list. While launch prices have generally been reduced over the past several years, they remain well above the elastic range of supply and demand. Our best estimate is that it will take an order of magnitude reduction to significantly expand the market. Projections about market segments that will represent future winners in space and launch demand forecasts are presented. Future markets, outside of traditional strongholds, are explored, including a long-term view of new commercial space activities, conventional and ambitious future/futuristic activities, and related business aspects.
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