Computer Science
Scientific paper
Apr 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009icq....31...45s&link_type=abstract
International Comet Quarterly, vol. 31, p. 45-65
Computer Science
Scientific paper
This paper is the first part of an investigation whose goal is to find out whether the enormous explosions experienced by comet 17P/Holmes in 1892-1893 and 2007 were accidental events or diagnostic of a systematic and possibly periodic or quasi-periodic pattern that extends over much longer time spans. In search of a recurrence rate, the specific objective of this paper is to establish the degree of likelihood that additional explosions -- potentially missed on account of the comet's very incomplete observing record -- may have occurred during the 115 years that separate the two known events. This effort consists of: (i) a determination of the comet's motion between the end of the 19th century and now, resulting in the best possible sets of orbital elements for the missed returns; (ii) an examination of observing conditions at each missed return for detecting a major explosion; (iii) a compilation of reported instances of unsuccessful search for the comet under favorable circumstances; and (iv) an investigation of potential causes of failure (inaccurate ephemeris, comet too faint) and identification of the most probable cause in each case. Indicative of a true recurrence period (if there is one) and vitally important to the second part of this investigation addressing the comet's history prior to the late 19th century, the scrutinized evidence shows that there is virtually no chance of an additional major explosion having occurred between 1892-1893 and 2007, at a well-observed apparition or a missed return alike. Recurring of super-massive explosions of comet 17P on a time scale much shorter than 115 years is practically ruled out.
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