Testing the global warming hypothesis

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology

Scientific paper

The temperature record for the global surface air temperature indicates that six of the warmest years occurred in the period 1980-1988. Here we address the question on the likelihood that such an arrangement is simply a manifestation of the natural variability of the system. Our results indicate that the probability that such an arrangement will arise naturally is between 0.010 and 0.032.

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