Validating Models of the Magnetic Connection Between the Sun and Earth

Details Validating Models of the Magnetic Connection Between the Sun and Earth Validating Models of the Magnetic Connection Between the Sun and Earth

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsh33b1839m&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SH33B-1839

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[7514] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Energetic Particles, [7599] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / General Or Miscellaneous

Scientific paper

Forecasting propmpt Solar Energetic Particle(SEP) bursts requires a model for the propagation of the SEPs from the source region in the lower corona to Earth. Previous studies have tested simple models that combine a potential model of the inner corona with an archimedean spiral between 2.5 solar radii and 1AU. In this study we compare the performance of four different models, all of which are available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). These are a simple constant wind speed spiral model, a potential field plus constant wind speed spiral model, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge(WSA) model, and the WSA model when coupled to the ENLIL 3D MHD model of the inner heliosphere. We report on performance for 15 well observed prompt bursts, and explore reasons why the model results differ. This study highlights particular model weaknesses which, when used in ensemble forecasting mode, might enable a forecaster to select between models based on relevant supporting observations. It also suggests the key areas in which the models might be upgraded.

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