Phase coherence of solar cycle minima over two 178-year periods

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Solar Cycles, Sunspot Cycle, Forecasting, Minima, Phase Deviation, Secular Variations, Statistical Analysis

Scientific paper

The authors compare the phases of solar cycle minima with an "ideal" sunspot cycle of the mean period of 11.14 years. The observed departures from the ideal model form a pattern over 16 cycles (approximately 178 years) which appears to be repeated over the next 16 cycles. Both in mathematic sign and amplitude the two 178-year cycles are coherent to a statistically significant level of 98%. If true, this furnishes a basis for predicting sunspot cycle minima.

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