Computer Science – Performance
Scientific paper
Dec 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufm.s33b2085d&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #S33B-2085
Computer Science
Performance
[1560] Geomagnetism And Paleomagnetism / Time Variations: Secular And Longer, [7230] Seismology / Seismicity And Tectonics
Scientific paper
In the past century, several observational results and corresponding publications indicate a systematic seismic performance with respect to the time of day and seasons as well. Such effects could be caused only by solar or lunar influence. In addition, a possible relation with the solar cycles was discussed in some papers, too. Intensive studies on these topics have also been performed at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna, Austria. They strongly confirm the above mentioned effects. In order to verify a solar influence on earthquake activity correlations were performed between the three-hour magnetic index Kp and the energy release of earthquakes in the long term. Kp characterizes the magnetic field disturbances which are mainly caused by the solar particle radiation, the solar wind. Kp is determined on a routine basis from magnetic records of 13 observatories worldwide and is continuously published by ISGI, France. Three regions of continental size were investigated, using the USGS (PDE) earthquake catalogue data, from 1974 on: N-America, S-America and Eurasia. The statistic analyses reveal that from 1974 to 2009 the index Kp varies in cycles with periods between 9 and 12 years, somewhat different to the sunspot number cycles (no. 21, 22, 23) of 11 years. As to the seismic energy release, the sqrt (energy E) of an event is taken as measure, which relates to the ‘strain release’ due to the earthquake (Benioff). For Kp the monthly averages were computed, for the strain release the monthly sums of sqrt(E), hereinafter referred to as STR. From the statistic estimates of the relation Kp-STR for all the three regions N-America, S-America and Eurasia it becomes evident, that the correlation is highly significant: earthquake activity, quantified by the monthly STR, follows the Kp cycles with high coincidence. A quantitative analysis reveals that on an annual basis, the sum of released energy by earthquakes changes by a factor up to 100 with Kp. In terms of earthquake statistics, the changes of Kp imply that in N-America during Kp maxima there happen e.g. 1 event M7, 4 events M6 and 30 events M5 per year, instead of only 10 events M5 in years with lowest Kp. For S-America the number of events during Kp maxima is about twice that observed for N-America. It further turns out that in all three regions, the strongest earthquakes with magnitude 7 and even 8 occur during the Kp maxima. In the recent decade, several geophysical models have been tested at the ZAMG and in co-operation with institutes in USA and UK, to interpret the coupling between the solar induced geomagnetic variations and disturbances and its mechanic implications in the Earth’s lithosphere, i.e. in rupture zones. Two such models are briefly introduced, which fit well the observations and indicate high mechanic forces due to electromagnetic induction. The described solar-terrestrial effect significantly affects strong earthquake activity, as outlined above. It is a general geodynamic process which acts in nearly all main seismic regions on the globe. Thus, the results may essentially contribute to a better understanding of earthquake occurrence and hazard assessment.
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