Effects of Orbital Evolution on Lunar Ice Stability

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[5422] Planetary Sciences: Solid Surface Planets / Ices, [5450] Planetary Sciences: Solid Surface Planets / Orbital And Rotational Dynamics, [5462] Planetary Sciences: Solid Surface Planets / Polar Regions, [6250] Planetary Sciences: Solar System Objects / Moon

Scientific paper

Permanently shadowed regions of the Moon have complex thermal histories that influence their ability to act as traps for water ice. Though many areas are now cold enough that surface water ice would be stable from sublimation losses for billions of years, this has not always been the case. Here we examine the effects of the long term orbital and rotational evolution of the Moon on polar thermal history, volatile stability and mobility. Using data from the Diviner Lunar Radiometer, aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, we validate models of the current temperature in the lunar polar region. This model includes the effects of topography, scattering, re-radiation, and regolith thermal properties. Then, integrating the effects of tidal torques backward from the present, we reconstruct past orbital and rotational states and use them as input to the thermal model to estimate the thermal environment of the distant lunar past. The rate of tidal evolution of the lunar orbit is quite uncertain, thus use orbital semimajor axis as independent variable, rather than time, in the reconstruction. The orbital integration results in a high obliquity period which occurred when the Moon was at about half its present distance from the Earth. This period, which caused half a year of direct sunlight on the polar region, is due to a transition between two Cassini States, spin-orbit configurations resulting from internal dissipation within the Moon. Since this event, the tilt of the Moon (with respect to the ecliptic) has slowly decreased to the current 1.54 degree. Prior to this transition, due to the relatively small Earth-Moon distance, large amplitude variations in the inclination of the orbital plain were also important. We examine the stability of polar volatiles in response to the evolving lunar orbit, and apply simple models to describe when in the Moon’s history supplied volatiles would have been most likely to be buried by thermal diffusion. When temperatures are much below 95K, ice delivered to the lunar surface is immobile in terms of thermal diffusion. Unless buried on relatively short time scales, most of the current polar environments are currently too cold to efficiently drive ice downward along thermal gradients and protect it from other surface loss processes. In the past, these same locations went through “ice trap” periods, where they were warm enough that supplied volatiles might have been buried by on short time scales, but cold enough that they would not be lost quickly, supplying the subsurface with volatiles that could still be stable today. The Cassini state transition was so warm that ice would either have been driven out into space, or possibly deep into the lunar subsurface. If a present lunar cold trap is ice bearing, that ice is likely to be representative of these “ice trap” periods and have little to do with the early Moon. As each current cold trap had a period where it was most efficient at thermal ice burial, the location of current ground ice on the Moon might also constrain the obliquity and time at which it was deposited. The presence of ice in a specific crater may imply either an increase in water flux or large comet impact during that period.

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